March Madness is here folks. I know some of you, especially ones that actually read this thing, have already looked at the tournament field and made some predictions. ESPN had a two-hour bracket prediction show yesterday about an hour after they announced the tournament teams that might have helped. But you never know with ESPN bias if they are actually telling you what they think or what they want you to think.
I am here to tell you what I think. And also some stats that I hope will help when filling out that dang bracket. I will try not to be biased with North Carolina, but we will see. Just announcing it right now. Shall we begin?
First I will start out saying that no matter how many stats you look at, you can't predict freak things happening like a 15 beating a 2. That's stupid. Or the fact that UCONN won last year of the playing ability of one player. Stuff like that might happen, but is it logical to pick a team to win games like that?
I will go region by region to get my final four. Then I will explain that reasoning. I will also be filling in my bracket, as I write this. And again, go ahead and join the March Madness group I created on ESPN. Let's see who gets the luckiest!
Midwest Region
1. Kentucky vs. 16. Hampton
Stats: None needed.
Analysis: Good job by Hampton by winning the first "Play-In" game. I really hope you can make history.
Prediction:
8. Cincinnati vs. 9. Purdue
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Cincinnati (62.4 PPG) | Purdue (69.9 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Cincinnati (55.3 PPG) | Purdue (64.5 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Cincinnati (45.3%) | Purdue (45.3%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Cincinnati (39.0%) | Purdue (40.1%)
- Rebounding Margin: Cincinnati (5.0) | Purdue (4.5)
- Turnover Margin: Cincinnati (-0.6) | (-1.4)
- RPI (Strength of Schedule/Wins versus that Schedule): Cincinnati (37) | Purdue (55)
Analysis: Purdue has played a much tougher schedule than the Bearcats of Cincinnati and I think that will help them in this game. Cincinnati was on a roll at the end of the season, but lost to UCONN on a buzzer beater in the American Tournament. 8 and 9 games are 50/50, but I think the way Cincinnati has played during the season is just better than Purdue.
Prediction:
5. West Virginia vs. 12. Buffalo
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: West Virginia (73.9 PPG) | Buffalo (75.0 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: West Virginia (66.8 PPG) | Buffalo (68.3 PPG)
- FG Percentage: West Virginia (41.2%) | Buffalo (43.5%)
- FG Percentage Defense: West Virginia (46.8%) | Buffalo (42.4%)
- Rebounding Margin: West Virginia (3.6) | Buffalo (3.1)
- Turnover Margin: West Virginia (6.6) | Buffalo (2.3)
- RPI: West Virginia (24) | Buffalo (28)
Analysis: This game has the potential of being very good. Buffalo holds the lead in all the scoring and defense categories, but West Virginia holds the edge on the boards/turnovers and RPI. I think the key stat in this one is the turnovers. West Virginia is a scrappy team and is very careful with the ball. When they turn up their defense, Buffalo might be scratching their heads.
Prediction:
4. Maryland vs. 13. Valparaiso
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Maryland (69.5 PPG) | Valparaiso (69.8 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Maryland (63.2 PPG) | Valparaiso (59.3 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Maryland (43.8%) | Valparaiso (45.9%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Maryland (39.6%) | Valparaiso (38%)
- Rebounding Margin: Maryland (1.5) | Valparaiso (7.2)
- Turnover Margin: Maryland (-0.8) | Valparaiso (-0.3)
- RPI: Maryland (13) | Valparaiso (50)
Analysis: Valparaiso leads is every category, but the RPI. Maryland has much more talent and if Wells or their freshman gets hot, Maryland could be the UConn of this year's tournament. But it's March Madness BABY!!! (Dick Vitale voice)
Prediction:
6. Butler vs. 11. Texas
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Butler (69.6 PPG) | Texas (67.9 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Butler (61.2 PPG) | Texas (60.4 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Butler (43.9%) | Texas (43.6%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Butler (41.6%) | Texas (36.8%)
- Rebounding Margin: Butler (6.5) | Texas (8.3)
- Turnover Margin: Butler (1.2) | Texas (-3.7)
- RPI: Butler (31) | Texas (42)
Analysis: Pretty much back and forth on many of the major stats. Texas is a team that I believe didn't do enough to get into the tournament. They are good enough to be in, but I don't think the resume was at all good. Butler was a lock for the tournament and can really hang with team's on the boards. They made it to two straight championships a few year's ago, but that is not this team. Texas shouldn't have gotten in, but will prove they are pretty good.
Prediction:
3. Notre Dame vs. 14. Northeastern
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Notre Dame (78.8 PPG) | Northeastern (68.6 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Notre Dame (65.6 PPG) | Northeastern (65.0 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Notre Dame (51.0%) | Northeastern (48.6 %)
- FG Percentage Defense: Notre Dame (42.7%) | Northeastern (44.5%)
- Rebounding Margin: Notre Dame (0.1) | Northeastern (4.8)
- Turnover Margin: Notre Dame (1.9) | Northeastern (-3.7)
- RPI: Notre Dame (16) | Northeastern (86)
Analysis: Even if Northeastern wins the rebounding battle, they aren't going to be able to stop the Irish. Key State: Defensive FG Percentage
Prediction:
7. Wichita State vs. 10. Indiana
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Wichita State (69.7 PPG) | Indiana (77.5 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Wichita State (55.8 PPG) | Indiana (71.4 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Wichita State (44.6%) | Indiana (46.6%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Wichita State (39.8%) | Indiana (45.5%)
- Rebounding Margin: Wichita State (5.3) | Indiana (3.2)
- Turnover Margin: Wichita State (3.9) | Indiana (-0.7)
- RPI: Wichita State (18) | Indiana (61)
Analysis: I think by far Wichita State is a better team than a 7 seed. This match-up is a battle of offense and defense, but Wichita State isn't too far off the pace of Indiana's offense and the Hoosier defense isn't really good at all.
Prediction:
2. Kansas vs. 15. New Mexico State
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Kansas (71.2 PPG) | New Mexico State (68.5 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Kansas (64.7 PPG) | New Mexico State (59.3 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Kansas (44.0%) | New Mexico State (46.6%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Kansas (39.5%) | New Mexico State (42.1%)
- Rebounding Margin: Kansas (3.6) | New Mexico State (6.8)
- Turnover Margin: Kansas (-1.1) | New Mexico State (-0.8)
- RPI: Kansas (3) | New Mexico State (103)
Analysis: Don't let the stats fool you. New Mexico State has a chance to scare Kansas, but won't be able to keep up.
Prediction:
1. Kentucky vs. 8. Cincinnati
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Kentucky (74.9 PPG) | Cincinnati (62.4 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Kentucky (54.0 PPG) | Cincinnati (55.3 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Kentucky (46.9%) | Cincinnati (45.3%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Kentucky (35.5%) | Cincinnati (39.0%)
- Rebounding Margin: Kentucky (7.4) | Cincinnati (5.0)
- Turnover Margin: Kentucky (3.4) | Cincinnati (-0.6)
- RPI: Kentucky (1) | Cincinnati (37)
Analysis: I do think Kentucky's soft schedule the past few months will catch up to them, but it is going to have to take a team far better than Cincinnati to do so. Also, the further Kentucky goes the more dangerous become.
Prediction:
5. West Virginia vs. 13. Valparaiso
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: West Virginia (73.9 PPG) | Valparaiso (69.8 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: West Virginia (66.8 PPG) | Valparaiso (59.3 PPG)
- FG Percentage: West Virginia (41.2%) | Valparaiso (45.9%)
- FG Percentage Defense: West Virginia (46.8%) | Valparaiso (38.0%)
- Rebounding Margin: West Virginia (3.6) | Valparaiso (7.2)
- Turnover Margin: West Virginia (6.6) | Valparaiso (-0.3)
- RPI: West Virginia (24) | Valparaiso (50)
Analysis: Turnover margin. A team like Valparaiso worst nightmare is a team that can force turnovers and be careful with the ball. WVU can turn on the pressure in the second half and it will be game, set, match.
Prediction:
11. Texas vs. 3. Notre Dame
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Texas (67.9 PPG) | Notre Dame (78.8 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Texas (60.4 PPG) | Notre Dame (65.6 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Texas (43.6%) | Notre Dame (51.0%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Texas (36.8%) | Notre Dame (42.7%)
- Rebounding Margin: Texas (8.3) | Notre Dame (0.1)
- Turnover Margin: Texas (-3.7) | Notre Dame (1.9)
- RPI: Texas (42) | Notre Dame (16)
Analysis: This is another matchup of offense and defense. Notre Dame can shoot lights out any given night and Texas can/will control the boards in this game. Scoring prevails in this one, as Texas can't keep up and gives the ball away too many times.
Prediction:
7. Wichita State vs. 2. Kansas
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Wichita State (69.7 PPG) | Kansas (71.2 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Wichita State (55.8 PPG) | Kansas (64.7 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Wichita State (44.6%) | Kansas (44.0%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Wichita State (39.8%) | Kansas (39.5%)
- Rebounding Margin: Wichita State (5.3) | Kansas (3.6)
- Turnover Margin: Wichita State (3.9) | Kansas (-1.1)
- RPI: Wichita State (18) | Kansas (3)
Analysis: This is the game Wichita State has been waiting for years to play. The Shockers want to prove that they are the best team in Kansas, while Kansas is in a lose/lose situation. Kansas has better talent, but couldn't close the door on some teams during the season. I'm shocked too.
Prediction:
Sweet Sixteen: 1. Kentucky vs. 5. West Virginia
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Kentucky (74.9 PPG) | West Virginia (73.9 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Kentucky (54.0 PPG) | West Virginia (66.8 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Kentucky (46.9%) | West Virginia (41.2%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Kentucky (35.5%) | West Virginia (46.8%)
- Rebounding Margin: Kentucky (7.4) | West Virginia (3.6)
- Turnover Margin: Kentucky (3.4) | West Virginia (6.6)
- RPI: Kentucky (1) | West Virginia (24)
Analysis: It will be Kentucky's first major test and will be decided by single digits. WVU will have an opportunity to pressure the Wildcats, but I just think Kentucky is a better defensive team than WVU in terms of missing shot and that is what will decide it.
Prediction:
Sweet Sixteen: 3. Notre Dame vs. 7. Wichita State
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Notre Dame (78.8 PPG) | Wichita State (69.7 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Notre Dame (65.6 PPG) | Wichita State (55.8 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Notre Dame (51.0%) | Wichita State (44.6%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Notre Dame (42.7%) | Wichita State (39.8%)
- Rebounding Margin: Notre Dame (0.1) | Wichita State (5.3)
- Turnover Margin: Notre Dame (1.9) | Wichita State (3.9)
- RPI: Notre Dame (16) | Wichita State (18)
Analysis: Like I have said before, Notre Dame can shoot with any team in the country. Wichita State focuses more on defense. This game will be tightly contested the whole time as Notre Dame's shooting will balance out with Wichita State's rebounding margin and defense. And the winner is...
Prediction:
Elite Eight: 1. Kentucky vs. 7. Wichita State
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Kentucky (74.9 PPG) | Wichita State (69.7 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Kentucky (54.0 PPG) | Wichita State (55.8 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Kentucky (46.9%) | Wichita State (44.6%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Kentucky (35.5%) | Wichita State (39.8%)
- Rebounding Margin: Kentucky (7.4) | Wichita State (5.3)
- Turnover Margin: Kentucky (3.4) | Wichita State (3.9)
- RPI: Kentucky (1) | Wichita State (18)
Analysis: This is a rematch for the Shockers who were "upset" by Kentucky last year in the tournament. Now if Wichita State would win it would be an upset. I see a lot of similarities between Wichita State and Kentucky. They play the same way: focus on defensive and crashing the boards. They are basically the same type of team, except the Wildcats have better players.
Prediction:
West Regional
1. Wisconsin vs. 16. Coastal Carolina
No Stats Needed. 16 will never beat a 1.
Analysis: Wisconsin's Player of Year candidate Frank "The Tank" won't even have to show up to this one.
Prediction:
8. Oregon vs. 9. Oklahoma State
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Oregon (75.6 PPG) | Oklahoma State (67.3 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Oregon (70.7 PPG) | Oklahoma State (62.3 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Oregon (46.1%) | Oklahoma State (43.9%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Oregon (42.1%) | Oklahoma State (39.9%)
- Rebounding Margin: Oregon (1.4) | Oklahoma State (-2.0)
- Turnover Margin: Oregon (-0.2) | Oklahoma State (1.5)
- RPI: Oregon (27) | Oklahoma State (49)
Analysis: Another offense/defense game in the tournament. 50/50 this one. Key stat: Rebounding Margin.
Prediction:
5. Arkansas vs. 12. Wofford
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Arkansas (78.0 PPG) | Wofford (67.0 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Arkansas (70.1 PPG) | Wofford (59.8 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Arkansas (44.7%) | Wofford (45.8%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Arkansas (43.1%) | Wofford (41.7%)
- Rebounding Margin: Arkansas (0.4) | Wofford (1.4)
- Turnover Margin: Arkansas (4.2) | Wofford (1.9)
- RPI: Arkansas (20) | Wofford (47)
Analysis: Wofford will be able to hang on against Arkansas, as their defensive effienciency is much higher than the Razorbacks. Arkansas likes to play a frantic type of basketball, which Wofford will have no problem playing in the first half. Wofford only has one playmaker on their team and I believe he will be worn out by the second half. WOO PIG SUEY!
Prediction:
4. North Carolina vs. 13. Harvard
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: North Carolina (77.9 PPG) | Harvard (64.2 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: North Carolina (68.4 PPG) | Harvard (57.2 PPG)
- FG Percentage: North Carolina (47.5%) | Harvard (43.5%)
- FG Percentage Defense: North Carolina (39.8%) | Harvard (39.9%)
- Rebounding Margin: North Carolina (8.2) | Harvard (3.7)
- Turnover Margin: North Carolina (-0.3) | Harvard (0.9)
- RPI: North Carolina (11) | Harvard (52)
Analysis: Harvard's top two rebounders this year are 6'7 and 6'5. It will be the Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks show for the Tar Heels.
Prediction:
6. Xavier vs. 11. Ole Miss
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Xavier (73.6 PPG) | Ole Miss (72.6 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Xavier (67.6 PPG) | Ole Miss (67.5 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Xavier (47.3%) | Ole Miss (42.6%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Xavier (43.7%) | Ole Miss (40.0%)
- Rebounding Margin: Xavier (3.6) | Ole Miss (2.8)
- Turnover Margin: Xavier (0.9) | Ole Miss (1.3)
- RPI: Xavier (30) |Ole Miss (60)
Analysis: I originally had BYU winning this match-up if they played against Xavier, but now I think Xavier matches up well with Ole Miss. Both team's are pretty much even on how many points per game they score and how many points they allow per game. I think the big difference is FG%. Xavier shoots it extremely effective from the floor and won't allow any 17 points leads evaporate.
Prediction:
3. Baylor vs. 14. Georgia State
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Baylor (69.5 PPG) | Georgia State (72.0 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Baylor (60.3 PPG) | Georgia State (62.2 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Baylor (43.4%) | Georgia State (48%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Baylor (40.2%) | Georgia State (38.1%)
- Rebounding Margin: Baylor (8.0) | Georgia State (-0.6)
- Turnover Margin: Baylor (-0.3) | Georgia State (4.5)
- RPI: Baylor (10) | Georgia State (53)
Analysis: Baylor holds a distinct edge in the rebounding category and might out-rebound Georgia State by 15. Georgia State is really good at forcing turnovers. Can they get more turnovers to balance out the rebounding?
Prediction:
7. VCU vs. 10. Ohio State
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: VCU (72.5 PPG) | Ohio State (75.8 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: VCU (65.5 PPG) | Ohio State (62.3 PPG)
- FG Percentage: VCU (42.0%) | Ohio State (48.6%)
- FG Percentage Defense: VCU (43.3%) | Ohio State (40.5%)
- Rebounding Margin: VCU (-1.3) | Ohio State (2.9)
- Turnover Margin: VCU (5.5) | Ohio State (3.4)
- RPI: VCU (15) | Ohio State (41)
Analysis: The only thing going for VCU in this match-up is forcing turnovers, but against a better and more talented team than who they are used to playing, VCU will give away just as many turnovers as they force.
Prediction:
2. Arizona vs. 15. Texas Southern
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Arizona (76.4 PPG) | Texas Southern (68.2 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Arizona (58.6 PPG) | Texas Southern (67.4 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Arizona (48.9%) | Texas Southern (44.4%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Arizona (39.2%) | Texas Southern (44.0%)
- Rebounding Margin: Arizona (8.8) | Texas Southern (0.4)
- Turnover Margin: Arizona (2.9) | Texas Southern (-0.8)
- RPI: Arizona (5) | Texas Southern (118)
Analysis: This one could get ugly.
Prediction:
1. Wisconsin vs. 8. Oregon
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Wisconsin (71.9 PPG) | Oregon (75.6 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Wisconsin (56.1 PPG) | Oregon (70.7 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Wisconsin (48.0%) | Oregon (46.1%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Wisconsin (41.9%) | Oregon (42.1%)
- Rebounding Margin: Wisconsin (6.0) | Oregon (1.4)
- Turnover Margin: Wisconsin (2.6) | Oregon (-0.2)
- RPI: Wisconsin (4) | Oregon (27)
Analysis: Oregon will be forced to play Wisconsin's tempo. Half-court defense and outstanding rebounding are too much for the Ducks.
Prediction:
5. Arkansas vs. 4. North Carolina
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Arkansas (78.0 PPG) | North Carolina (77.9 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Arkansas (70.1 PPG) | North Carolina (68.4 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Arkansas (44.7%) | North Carolina (47.5%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Arkansas (43.1%) | North Carolina (39.8%)
- Rebounding Margin: Arkansas (0.4) | North Carolina (8.2)
- Turnover Margin: Arkansas (4.2) | North Carolina (-0.3)
- RPI: Arkansas (20) | North Carolina (11)
Analysis: Arkansas' frantic pace will put North Carolina in some trouble, but North Carolina has been known for fast-paced offenses. Also North Carolina holds a huge advantage rebounding, so when it goes to a half-court game the Tar Heels will have no trouble beating the Razorbacks on the boards.
Prediction:
6. Xavier vs. 14. Georgia State
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Xavier (73.6 PPG) | Georgia State (72.0 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Xavier (67.6 PPG) | Georgia State (62.2 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Xavier (47.3%) | Georgia State (48%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Xavier (43.7%) | Georgia State (38.1%)
- Rebounding Margin: Xavier (3.6) | Georgia State (-0.6)
- Turnover Margin: Xavier (0.9) | Georgia State (4.5)
- RPI: Xavier (30) | Georgia State (53)
Analysis: Georgia State can be really pesky on defense. They force many turnovers per game and shoot the ball effective from the floor. Xavier on the other hand shoots the ball effective and will hold the rebounding edge in this game.
Fun Fact: Kevin Ware, the former Louisville player that broke his leg while playing two year ago, plays for Georgia State.
Prediction:
10. Ohio State vs. 2. Arizona
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Ohio State (75.8 PPG) | Arizona (76.4 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Ohio State (62.3 PPG) | Arizona (58.6 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Ohio State (48.6%) | Arizona (48.9%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Ohio State (40.5%) | Arizona (39.2%)
- Rebounding Margin: Ohio State (2.9) | Arizona (8.8)
- Turnover Margin: Ohio State (3.4) | Arizona (2.9)
- RPI: Ohio State (41) | Arizona (5)
Analysis: I really think this one will be a close game, but the rebounding ability of Arizona will be the difference. Ohio State will come close though.
Prediction:
Sweet Sixteen: 1. Wisconsin vs. 4. North Carolina
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Wisconsin (71.9 PPG) | North Carolina (77.9 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Wisconsin (56.1 PPG) | North Carolina (68.4 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Wisconsin (48.0%) | North Carolina (47.5%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Wisconsin (43.1%) | North Carolina (39.8%)
- Rebounding Margin: Wisconsin (6.0) | North Carolina (8.2)
- Turnover Margin: Wisconsin (2.6) | North Carolina (-0.3)
- RPI: Wisconsin (4) | North Carolina (11)
Analysis: Wisconsin and North Carolina match each other really well. North Carolina scores more points, but Wisconsin shoots it better. Wisconsin allows fewer points, but North Carolina defends shots better. The key stat in this one is turnovers. Will North Carolina turn the ball over a lot or will they play smart. I hate to do this....
Prediction: Just Kidding!
Sweet Sixteen: 14. Georgia State vs. 2. Arizona
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Georgia State (72.0 PPG) | Arizona (76.4 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Georgia State (62.2 PPG) | Arizona (58.6 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Georgia State (48%) | Arizona (48.9%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Georgia State (38.1) | Arizona (39.2%)
- Rebounding Margin: Georgia State (-0.6) | Arizona (8.8)
- Turnover Margin: Georgia State (4.5) | Arizona (2.9)
- RPI: Georgia State (53) | Arizona (5)
Analysis: I don't think this will be much of a Sweet Sixteen game. Look for Arizona to start to pull away late in the first half after they adjust to the defense of Georgia State.
Prediction:
Elite Eight: 4. North Carolina vs. 2. Arizona
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: North Carolina (77.9 PPG) | Arizona (76.4 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: North Carolina (68.4 PPG) | Arizona (58.6 PPG)
- FG Percentage: North Carolina (47.5%) | Arizona (48.9%)
- FG Percentage Defense: North Carolina (39.8%) | Arizona (39.2%)
- Rebounding Margin: North Carolina (8.2) | Arizona (8.8)
- Turnover Margin: North Carolina (-0.3) | Arizona (2.9)
- RPI: North Carolina (11) | Arizona (5)
Analysis: North Carolina will have a full head of steam after coming off a big win against Wisconsin, while Arizona will be in the elite 8 easily with a win over BYU. This might be North Carolina worst nightmare. Arizona plays really tough defense and with few scoring options outside the Tar Heels will be limited to the their low post game, in which Arizona has some really good big men.
Prediction:
East Regional
1. Villanova vs. 16. Lafayette
Stats: Villanova scored a lot. Lafayette will most likely score a little.
Analysis: See Above.
Prediction:
8. North Carolina State vs. 9. LSU
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: North Carolina State (70.4 PPG) | LSU (73.7 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: North Carolina State (65.4 PPG) | LSU (67.7 PPG)
- FG Percentage: North Carolina State (43.7 %) | LSU (45.6%)
- FG Percentage Defense: North Carolina State (40.3%) | LSU (40.1%)
- Rebounding Margin: North Carolina State (3.3) | LSU (2.3)
- Turnover Margin: North Carolina State (-0.5) | LSU (-0.9)
- RPI: North Carolina State (39) | LSU (57)
Analysis: Pretty much even teams on paper, but NC State has the better chance of getting hot from the field and taking over in the paint. They have also played a much tougher schedule and have beaten two of their in-state rivals (UNC/Duke) this year.
Prediction:
5. Northern Iowa vs. 12. Wyoming
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Northern Iowa (65.4 PPG) | Wyoming (61.7 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Northern Iowa (54.3 PPG) | Wyoming (56.0 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Northern Iowa (48.3%) | Wyoming (46.2%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Northern Iowa (39.1%) | Wyoming (40.1%)
- Rebounding Margin: Northern Iowa (2.4) | Wyoming (0.1)
- Turnover Margin: Northern Iowa (0.8) | Wyoming (-0.3)
- RPI: Northern Iowa (14) | Wyoming (71)
Analysis: I would really be surprised if Wyoming wins this games. Northern Iowa is better than a 5 seed, played in a much tougher conference than Wyoming and leads them in every statistical category it seems.
Prediction:
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Louisville (69.2 PPG) | UC Irvine (67.9 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Louisville (59.5 PPG) | UC Irvine (62.3 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Louisville (42.9%) | UC Irvine (46.1%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Louisville (38.9%) | UC Irvine (39.3%)
- Rebounding Margin: Louisville (3.0) | UC Irvine (1.5)
- Turnover Margin: Louisville (2.7) | UC Irvine (-0.2)
- RPI: Louisville (21) | UC Irvine (88)
Analysis: Defense and rebounding will give Louisville a huge edge in this game. UC Irvine's offensive stats look a little better than Louisville, but you have to factor in how they have played and who Louisville has played. Look for Louisville to keep it low scoring.
Prediction:
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Providence (70.2 PPG) | Dayton (68.2 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Providence (65.5 PPG) | Dayton (60.9 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Providence (44.2%) | Dayton (46.3%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Providence (42.1 %) | Dayton (42.1%)
- Rebounding Margin: Providence (3.9) | Dayton (-1.1)
- Turnover Margin: Providence (1.2) | Dayton (2.1)
- RPI: Providence (22) | Dayton (32)
Analysis: Dayton will win the play-in game against Boise State because it is a virtual home for them. They are undefeated this year playing at home and the game is being played in Dayton. They then will have to face Providence, who they match up with pretty well except for rebounding. If Dayton can keep the pace at a little higher tempo, they will be able to steal this one away.
Prediction:
3. Oklahoma vs. 14. Albany
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Oklahoma (71.9 PPG) | Albany (65.5 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Oklahoma (62.8 PPG) | Albany (60.2 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Oklahoma (43.6%) | Albany (44.0%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Oklahoma (38.5%) | Albany (42.0%)
- Rebounding Margin: Oklahoma (1.1) | Albany (4.8)
- Turnover Margin: Oklahoma (1.7) | Albany (0.8)
- RPI: Oklahoma (18) | Albany (99)
Analysis: Albany wants to play this game in the half court and low-scoring, so they can use their rebounding edge to their advantage. That is easier said than done though, when you are going against a team that is much more talented than you.
Prediction:
7. Michigan State vs. 10. Georgia
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Michigan State (71.9 PPG) | Georgia (68.3 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Michigan State (63.4 PPG) | Georgia (64.2 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Michigan State (47.1%) | Georgia (43.5%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Michigan State (40.0%) | Georgia (38.7%)
- Rebounding Margin: Michigan State (6.8) | Georgia (4.2)
- Turnover Margin: Michigan State (-0.6) | Georgia (-1.7)
- RPI: Michigan State (23) | Georgia (38)
Analysis: Michigan State has the better statistics, plays in a better conference, has a better coach and has a much more talented roster. I just don't trust a team that lost to South Carolina twice.
Prediction:
2. Virginia vs. 15. Belmont
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Virginia (65.3 PPG) | Belmont (74.5 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Virginia (50.7 PPG) | Belmont (70.3 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Virginia (46.3%) | Belmont (47.6%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Virginia (36.1%) | Belmont (45.2%)
- Rebounding Margin: Virginia (7.8) | Belmont (0.6)
- Turnover Margin: Virginia (1.2) | Belmont (-0.9)
- RPI: Virginia (7) | Belmont (105)
Analysis: This is the perfect game for Virginia to tune up their offense. Defensively Virginia is the best at defending you on the ball and making it difficult to make a shot. If you can hang with Virginia defensively you have a shot at beating them, but Belmont can't play that way.
Prediction:
1. Villanova vs. 8. North Carolina State
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Villanova (76.3 PPG) | North Carolina State (70.4 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Villanova (60.9 PPG) | North Carolina State (65.4 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Villanova (47.0%) | North Carolina State (43.7%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Villanova (40.5%) | North Carolina State (40.3%)
- Rebounding Margin: Villanova (2.3) | North Carolina State (3.3)
- Turnover Margin: Villanova (3.4) | North Carolina State (-0.5)
- RPI: Villanova (2) | North Carolina State (39)
Analysis: This will be a tightly contested game. The main concern I have for NC State is the turnover margin. Villanova holds an edge there. Turnovers can flip momentum completely for one team and I think that is what will happen here. A few NC State mistakes will be the difference.
Prediction:
5. Northern Iowa vs. 4. Lousiville
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Northern Iowa (65.4 PPG) | Louisville (69.2 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Northern Iowa (54.3 PPG) | Louisville (59.5 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Northern Iowa (48.3%) | Louisville (42.9%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Northern Iowa (39.1%) | Louisville (42.9%)
- Rebounding Margin: Northern Iowa (2.4) | Louisville (3.0)
- Turnover Margin: Northern Iowa (0.8) | Louisville (2.7)
- RPI: Northern Iowa (14) | Louisville (21)
Analysis: Louisville has the certain toughness about them that you love during tournament time. Both teams do not score a lot of points and that will play into Louisville's hands. Yeah, Northern Iowa has better defensive statistics, but you also have to figure in the competition they played against. Louisville beat Virginia at their own defensive game and came close to beating them earlier in the season as well.
Prediction:
6. Providence vs. 3. Oklahoma
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Providence (70.2 PPG) | Oklahoma (71.9 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Providence (65.5 PPG) | Oklahoma (62.8 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Providence (44.2%) | Oklahoma (43.6%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Providence (42.1%) | Oklahoma (38.5%)
- Rebounding Margin: Providence (3.9) | Oklahoma (1.1)
- Turnover Margin: Providence (1.2) | Oklahoma (1.7)
- RPI: Providence (22) | Oklahoma (18)
Analysis: Both team's are going to look to score a lot of points, but the Sooners are going to let it loose downtown. Providence is just an average team defending the three ball and that is what will send the Sooners into the Sweet 16.
Prediction:
7. Michigan State vs. 2. Virginia
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Michigan State (71.9 PPG) | Virginia (65.3 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Michigan State (63.4 PPG) | Virginia (50.7 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Michigan State (47.1%) | Virginia (46.3%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Michigan State (40.0%) | Virginia (36.1%)
- Rebounding Margin: Michigan State (6.8) | Virginia (7.8)
- Turnover Margin: Michigan State (-0.6) | Virginia (1.2)
- RPI: Michigan State (23) | Virginia (7)
Analysis: As I mentioned before, the only way you will beat Virginia is if you are a good defensive team like they are. You don't have to be great on defense, you just have to keep up with Virginia's intensity on that side of the floor. Michigan State has that. They are also better defensively and offensively than Louisville that split the season series with Virginia.
Prediction:
Sweet Sixteen: 1. Villanova vs. 4. Louisville
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Villanova (76.3 PPG) | Louisville (69.2 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Villanova (60.9 PPG) | Louisville (59.5 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Villanova (47.0%) | Louisville (42.9%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Villanova (40.5%) | Louisville (42.9%)
- Rebounding Margin: Villanova (2.3) | Louisville (3.0)
- Turnover Margin: Villanova (3.4) | Louisville (2.7)
- RPI: Villanova (2) | Louisville (21)
Analysis: Villanova did not have one of the toughest schedules during the season, but the more they play in the NCAA tournament the more dangerous they will become. That is the same for Kentucky, Arizona, or any team from a conference besides the ACC, Big 12 and the Big 10. In this match-up however, Villanova will still come up on top. Louisville wants it to be a defensive game, but Nova will score their points. And they are a statically better defensive team (probably because of the conference), but honestly are probably not that far off.
Prediction:
Sweet Sixteen: 3. Oklahoma vs. 7. Michigan State
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Oklahoma (71.9 PPG) | Michigan State (71.9 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Oklahoma (62.8 PPG) | Michigan State (63.4 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Oklahoma (43.6%) | Michigan State (47.1%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Oklahoma (38.5%) | Michigan State (40.0%)
- Rebounding Margin: Oklahoma (1.1) | Michigan State (6.8)
- Turnover Margin: Oklahoma (1.7) | Michigan State (-0.6)
- RPI: Oklahoma (18) | Michigan State (23)
Analysis: The hidden stat here is 3-PT Defensive FG percentage for Michigan State. Both teams are pretty even with Michigan State holding the rebounding advantage and Oklahoma being a little better defensively. OU's FG percentage is lower than State's because they take more three's, but is Michigan State's perimeter defense good enough for the "W"?
Prediction:
Elite Eight: 1. Villanova vs. 7. Michigan State
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Villanova (76.3 PPG) | Michigan State (71.9 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Villanova (60.9 PPG) | Michigan State (63.4 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Villanova (47.0%) | Michigan State (47.1%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Villanova (40.5%) | Michigan State (40.0%)
- Rebounding Margin: Villanova (2.3) | Michigan State (6.8)
- Turnover Margin: Villanova (3.4) | Michigan State (-0.6)
- RPI: Villanova (2) | Michigan State 23)
Analysis: Villanova and Michigan State. Both teams North Carolina beat in the Final Four in 2009. Go Heels! even though I have them losing to Arizona.
Efficiently wise, Michigan State and Villanova are pretty equal. Michigan State holds the edge on the boards and Villanova holds the edge in the turnover department. Close-game fought until the end and it will turn into who can hit the clutch shot.
Prediction:
I just realized that all three of my final four team's right now are Wildcats. In that case I think we are in need of a Wildcat montage.
South Regional
1. Duke vs. 16. North Florida/Robert Morris
Stats: Okafor.
Analysis: No matter how bad I would love Duke to become the first number seed to lose to a 16-seed, it simply won't happen.
Prediction:
8. San Diego State vs. 9. St. Johns
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: San Diego State (61.8 PPG) | St. John's (71.2 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: San Diego State (53.1 PPG) | St. John's (67.6 PPG)
- FG Percentage: San Diego State (41.9%) | St. John's (44.1%)
- FG Percentage Defense: San Diego State (37.7%) | St. John's (40.5%)
- Rebounding Margin: San Diego State (3.2) | St. John's (-3.7)
- Turnover Margin: San Diego State (1.9) | St. John's (2.5)
- RPI: San Diego State (26) | St. Johns (44)
Analysis: St. John's is going to want to run the floor, while San Diego State wants to play defense and keep the scoring low. Both team's have their fair share of talent, but St. John's is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country.
Prediction:
5. Utah vs. 12. Stephen F. Austin
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Utah (72.1 PPG) | Stephen F. Austin (79.5 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Utah (56.9 PPG) | Stephen F. Austin (64.5 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Utah (48.5%) | Stephen F. Austin (49.1%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Utah (38.3%) | Stephen F. Austin (43.8%)
- Rebounding Margin: Utah (5.1) | Stephen F. Austin (5.4)
- Turnover Margin: Utah (0.2) | Stephen F. Austin (3.2)
- RPI: Utah (19) | Stephen F. Austin (33)
Analysis: Utah wants to keep this game as low scoring as possible, so Stephen F. Austin can't get on a hot streak offensively. I'm just not sold on Utah. Their best conference win was UCLA, which is by far better than any team Stephen F. Austin played in conference, but still not that impressive. The Utes are an efficient team though, but this one has upset written all over it.
Prediction: And that is why the Utes will win. They know they can't play around with Stephen F. Austin.
4. Georgetown vs. 13. Eastern Washington
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Georgetown (70.7 PPG) | Eastern Washington (80.8 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Georgetown (64.6 PPG) | Eastern Washington (73.6 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Georgetown (45.5%) | Eastern Washington (48.0%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Georgetown (40.3%) | Eastern Washington (44.9%)
- Rebounding Margin: Georgetown (2.8) | Eastern Washington (0.2)
- Turnover Margin: Georgetown (0.9) | Eastern Washington (1.5)
- RPI: Georgetown (25) | Eastern Washington (74)
Analysis: If Eastern Washington fails to get into the low 80's and 90's they are beatable. And I just think Georgetown's defense is to good for that. The Hoyas will also be able to keep up with Eastern Washington because of EWU's poor defensive FG percentage and rebounding. High scoring games in the 70's/80's, but Georgetown will win.
Prediction:
6. SMU vs. 11. UCLA
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: SMU (69.4 PPG) | UCLA (72.0 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: SMU (59.8 PPG) | UCLA (68.0 PPG)
- FG Percentage: SMU (47.9%) | UCLA (44.1%)
- FG Percentage Defense: SMU (38.0%) | UCLA (41.7%)
- Rebounding Margin: SMU (6.9) | UCLA (3.9)
- Turnover Margin: SMU (0.2) | UCLA (0.7)
- RPI: SMU (12) | UCLA (48)
Analysis: UCLA is another team like Texas that failed to meet expectations, but could make a splash in the tournament if they get hot. SMU focuses on the defensive side of the ball and well coached because of Larry Brown. SMU would have be even more dangerous if Mudiay would have went to school. UCLA with the upset or will the Pony Express live on?
Prediction:
3. Iowa State vs. 14. UAB
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Iowa State (78.4 PPG) | UAB (68.9 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Iowa State (69.3 PPG) | UAB (67.7 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Iowa State (48.0%) | UAB (43.0%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Iowa State (41.8%) | UAB (42.0%)
- Rebounding Margin: Iowa State (1.2) | UAB (1.6)
- Turnover Margin: Iowa State (1.9) | UAB (-0.3)
- RPI: Iowa State (9) | UAB (129)
Analysis: Poor Blazers. They stole their conference tournament to earn a bid into the NCAA Tournament, but are now matched up with Iowa State, who might be the best 3-seed in the tournament. Iowa State will be able to put this game in the 70's or 80's and outscore UAB to move on. UAB still has the best mascot. Go Blaze.
Prediction:
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Iowa (69.4 PPG) | Davidson (79.9 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Iowa (61.9 PPG) | Davidson (69.0 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Iowa (42.7%) | Davidson (47.1%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Iowa (39.2%) | Davidson (44.0%)
- Rebounding Margin: Iowa (4.2) | Davidson (0.9)
- Turnover Margin: Iowa (1.2) | Davidson (2.2)
- RPI: Iowa (43) | Davidson (35)
Analysis: This is the first match-up that the lower seed has the higher RPI than the higher seed. If it is a shootout, Davidson will win. If it is a defensive slug fest, Iowa will win. Look for Davidson to run the floor and use their 3-point shot to their advantage.
Prediction:
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Gonzaga (79.1 PPG) | North Dakota State (64.5 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Gonzaga (60.9 PPG) | North Dakota State (61.5 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Gonzaga (52.4%) | North Dakota State (43.0%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Gonzaga (38.4%) | North Dakota State (41.8%)
- Rebounding Margin: Gonzaga (7.2) | North Dakota State (2.1)
- Turnover Margin: Gonzaga (1.0) | North Dakota State (0.8)
- RPI: Gonzaga (8) | North Dakota State (92)
Analysis: The only thing stopping Gonzaga is if they are really this good. They are one of the best scoring, shooting, defensive and rebounding teams in the country on paper, but is there schedule too soft. Speaking of soft, North Dakota State. This isn't football season.
Prediction:
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Duke (80.6 PPG) | San Diego State (61.8 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Duke (65.6 PPG) | San Diego State (53.1 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Duke (50.2%) | San Diego State (41.9%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Duke (42.9%) | San Diego State (37.7%)
- Rebounding Margin: Duke (6.2) | San Diego State (3.2)
- Turnover Margin: Duke (1.3) | San Diego State (1.9)
- RPI: Duke (6) | San Diego State (26)
Analysis: Like many of the good teams in the country, there is only about one or two things stopping them from being national champs. For Duke it is defense. Their offense, rebound, coaching and strength of schedule are all near tops in the country, but their defense is just average. It actually might be under average. I would say Duke's downfall would be losing to two 15-seeds in a row in the past two tournaments, but enough bashing Duke.
They are a really good team this year.
Prediction:
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Utah (72.1 PPG) | Georgetown (70.7 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Utah (56.9 PPG) | Georgetown (64.6 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Utah (48.5%) | Georgetown (45.5%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Utah (38.3%) | Georgetown (40.3%)
- Rebounding Margin: Utah (5.1) | Georgetown (2.8)
- Turnover Margin: Utah (0.2) | Georgetown (0.9)
- RPI: Utah (19) | Georgetown (25)
Analysis: This is a great match-up for Utah. Georgetown isn't really a high scoring or a really good defensive team, they are just a good team. Utah can beat good teams, but struggle with elite or teams that are dominant on either side of the ball.
Prediction:
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: SMU (69.4 PPG) | Iowa State (78.4 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: SMU (59.8 PPG) | Iowa State (69.3 PPG)
- FG Percentage: SMU (47.9%) | Iowa State (48.0%)
- FG Percentage Defense: SMU (38.0%) | Iowa State (41.8%)
- Rebounding Margin: SMU (6.9) | Iowa State (1.2)
- Turnover Margin: SMU (0.2) | Iowa State (1.9)
- RPI: SMU (12) | Iowa State (9)
Analysis: Probably the best round of 32 game in the tournament when you look at RPI of both clubs. Two clubs in the top 15. This year however, SMU is 0-4 against teams in this tournament that are a 5-seed or better. I don't think that will change here.
Prediction:
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Davidson (79.9 PPG) | Gonzaga (79.1 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Davidson (69.0 PPG) | Gonzaga (60.9 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Davidson (47.1%) | Gonzaga (52.4%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Davidson (44.0%) | Gonzaga (38.4%)
- Rebounding Margin: Davidson (0.9) | Gonzaga (7.2)
- Turnover Margin: Davidson (2.2) | Gonzaga (1.0)
- RPI: Davidson (35) | Gonzaga (8)
Analysis: When comparing teams that play about the same talent of competition, I like to see how effective they were against those teams (Offensively, Defensively, Rebounding and the Turnover battle). Gonzaga clearly owns the edge here.
Prediction:
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Duke (80.6 PPG) | Utah (72.1 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Duke (65.6 PPG) | Utah (56.9 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Duke (50.2%) | Utah (48.5%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Duke (42.9%) | Utah (38.3%)
- Rebounding Margin: Duke (6.2) | Utah (5.1)
- Turnover Margin: Duke (1.3) | Utah (0.2)
- RPI: Duke (6) | Utah (19)
Analysis: Utah will be a pest to Duke during this game, as they will never seem to go away. Each of the teams balance each other out pretty well, but I think it will be the three point shot that sends Duke advancing. But don't be surprised if Utah hangs on.
Prediction:
Sweet Sixteen: 3. Iowa State vs. 2. Gonzaga
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Iowa State (78.4 PPG) | Gonzaga (79.1 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Iowa State (59.8 PPG) | Gonzaga (60.9 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Iowa State (48.0%) | Gonzaga (52.4%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Iowa State (41.8%) | Gonzaga (38.4%)
- Rebounding Margin: Iowa State (1.2) | Gonzaga (7.2)
- Turnover Margin: Iowa State (1.9) | Gonzaga (1.0)
- RPI: Iowa State (9) | Gonzaga (8)
Analysis: Iowa State had a tough match-up in the round of 32, while Gonzaga had a much easier time against Davidson. The same could be said about the season of both teams as well. Iowa State is much more equipped to handle a team of Gonzaga's caliber after winning the Big 12 tournament and beating Kansas and Oklahoma multiple times this year. I just can't trust Gonzaga.
Prediction:
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Duke (80.6 PPG) | Iowa State (78.4 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Duke (65.6 PPG) | Iowa State (59.8 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Duke (50.2%) | Iowa State (48.0%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Duke (42.9%) | Iowa State (41.8%)
- Rebounding Margin: Duke (6.2) | Iowa State (1.2)
- Turnover Margin: Duke (1.3) | Iowa State (1.9)
- RPI: Duke (6) | Iowa State (9)
Analysis: I think this game will be in the low 70's/upper 60's and very close throughout the game. Both team's don't play that many players, so depth won't be an issue. I would look at rebounding, as the key to this game. Look for Plumlee and Jefferson to provide some good minutes down low for Duke.
Prediction:
Final Four
1. Kentucky
2. Arizona
1. Villanova
1. Duke
1. Kentucky vs. 2. Arizona
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Kentucky (74.9 PPG) | Arizona (76.4 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Kentucky (54.0 PPG) | Arizona (58.6 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Kentucky (46.9%) | Arizona (48.9%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Kentucky (35.5%) | Arizona (39.2%)
- Rebounding Margin: Kentucky (7.4) | Arizona (8.8)
- Turnover Margin: Kentucky (3.4) | Arizona (2.9)
- RPI: Kentucky (1) | Arizona (5)
Analysis: Might surprise some people, but Arizona matches up really well with Kentucky. And actually shoots better from the field. Both team's haven't played much during the regular season. SEC 2nd Best: Arkansas, PAC-12 2nd Best: Utah. Both were four seeds in this tournament. You honestly have to look at how both team's are made up. Kentucky plays a bunch of guys and many are pro ready. Arizona has pro-talent as well, but keeps there guys in a little longer. I always thought a good defensive team that could handle the rebounds and have a good offense would beat Kentucky. So why not?
Prediction:
1. Villanova vs. 1. Duke
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Villanova (76.3 PPG) | Duke (80.6 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Villanova (60.9 PPG) | Duke (65.6 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Villanova (47.0%) | Duke (50.2%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Villanova (40.5%) | Duke (42.9%)
- Rebounding Margin: Villanova (2.3) | Duke (6.2)
- Turnover Margin: Villanova (3.4) | Duke (1.3)
- RPI: Villanova (2) | Duke (6)
Analysis: This one will be a little bit more high scoring than the last one. Duke has the slight edge offensively, Villanova has the slight edge defensively. Duke on the boards, Nova on the turnovers. Even. One team that Villanova reminds me of is Notre Dame. The team that has beaten Duke two times this season with hot three-point shooting. Nova is slightly lower than the Irish in 3-PT %, but attempt more 3's. Duke reminds me of Duke. No one Villanova has played matches the team that Duke is. Duke did beat Notre Dame once....
Prediction:
Championship Game
2. Arizona vs. 1. Duke
Stats:
- Scoring Offense: Arizona (76.4 PPG) | Duke (80.6 PPG)
- Scoring Defense: Arizona (58.6 PPG) | Duke (65.6 PPG)
- FG Percentage: Arizona (48.9%) | Duke (50.2%)
- FG Percentage Defense: Arizona (39.2%) | Duke (42.9%)
- Rebounding Margin: Arizona (8.8) | Duke (6.2)
- Turnover Margin: Arizona (2.9) | Duke (1.3)
- RPI: Arizona (5) | Duke (6)
Analysis: If both team's reach it to the championship, Arizona will be in a much better position. They will be much fresher, they played arguably the best team in the tournament and match up very well with Duke. Arizona has some size that could compete against Okafor and then Arizona would just have to shut down Duke's perimeter game. Duke has to eliminate all of Arizona's scoring options and also limit Arizona's defensive ability. I believe Arizona is just good enough on the defensive side to take down the Dookies.
Prediction:
Conclusion
Well that's it folks. Hope you enjoyed it.
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